Power Struggle
Improving the energy dialogue in Canada (and beyond) through honest, non-partisan, and fact- based conversations.
The energy conversation is personal: it’s in our homes, in our hands, and now, it’s in our ears. Power Struggle invites you to listen in on honest, non-partisan, and fact-based conversations between host Stewart Muir and the leaders and thinkers designing modern energy.
Watch videos at https://www.youtube.com/@PowerStrugglePod
Power Struggle
Did you get COAL in your stocking?
Happy Holidays from Power Struggle!
As developing nations grapple with rapid growth, we explore the dilemmas surrounding coal consumption and the implications for climate goals.
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Welcome to Power Struggle, where we dive into the complex and sometimes controversial world of energy. Today we're tackling a topic that is sure to stir some strong emotions. Are we really going through an energy transition or is something more nuanced going on? The way into this for me is to look at the reality of a certain kind of energy type that is relied on very heavily in humanity's global energy mix today Coal. Does that word trigger an emotional response in you? I think it might.
Stewart Muir:Coal fueled the Industrial Revolution and created the modern world. Nowadays, with nuclear, solar and wind, you might assume the world has moved on. You might think we're in the age of the climate crisis, the renewables era. Coal use must be declining. However, despite the proliferation of new technologies, including electric vehicles and green incentives, the world is burning more coal than ever before. Experts have been predicting peak coal for years now, but they've always been proved wrong. The International Energy Agency says coal demand will start to decline gradually after 2025. But that does not add up. The world burns over one million tons of coal every hour. Let me repeat that 1 million tons of coal burned every hour, that matches the weight of nearly 5,000 statues of liberty or 10 aircraft carriers, or about 247,000 adult African elephants that's every hour. 37,000 adult African elephants that's every hour. This year, global coal consumption is expected to reach an all-time high.
Stewart Muir:Since the world started taking global warming seriously, coal demand has increased by 75%. How come? First of all, countries are developing at a rapid pace. This requires energy, and development is good. It means more people are in homes with electricity, refrigeration, clean water opportunity. One country in particular is growing so rapidly that it is driving global coal demands all by itself. That country is India, the world's most populous nation. Coal is hauling Indians into the middle class by the millions, which is exactly what happened 200 years ago in Europe and the United States. Coal a rock powered the industrial revolution. India's electricity usage is skyrocketing, so coal consumption is 10% higher just this year. But it's not only India. Countries in Southeast Asia like Vietnam, the Philippines, indonesia and Pakistan are increasingly reliant on coal. It's a cheap and reliable way to power and grow their economies. And so we have a conflict. How can we cheer on growth of developing countries sparked by coal while the world is supposed to be transitioning rapidly to reduce climate emissions? It doesn't exactly feel fair to say. I know I've benefited from all energies at my disposal to grow my country and become prosperous, but the gate is now closed behind me. Is there a way to power these developing nations while decreasing carbon and climate emissions? It seems like the easy switches from coal to gas and renewables in Western industrialized countries have largely already been made in those countries.
Stewart Muir:I'll use Canada as an example For those of you not from here. Alberta is the Texas of Canada. Oil and coal are in its DNA. Yet even in Alberta, there are no more coal plants. The last coal plant was shuttered in June 2024. Natural gas has taken over, along with renewables. You hear stories like this in a lot of the United States too.
Stewart Muir:Result A more flexible energy system that accommodates renewables better, while using a fuel that produces half the emissions of coal. I'm talking about natural gas. Ironically, coal is benefiting from the energy transition itself, as electrification drives up power demand. Indeed, you need energy to supply solar panels, batteries and EVs. Renewables are increasing, and so is the energy required to create them. Coal is relatively cheap, so it's very appealing to countries that are short of money or countries that want to offer products at the lowest price possible. China, often seen as a green energy leader, relies very heavily on coal. Despite producing and installing more windmills and solar panels and leading in electric vehicle production and adoption, china's green energy business is built on coal, and that is not going to change in a hurry.
Stewart Muir:Now let's zoom out and look at the big picture. Is humanity winning the battle of the energy transition as long as coal consumption continues to rise? The answer is no. Here's where things get really interesting, though. We're not transitioning away from fossil fuels. We're adding renewable sources on top of them. To quote Bloomberg News journalist Javier Blas, as long as coal consumption keeps increasing, the world is not performing an energy transition, but an energy addition. Where renewable sources of energy top up fossil fuels, where renewable sources of energy top up fossil fuels. In other words, all the exciting new green energy projects are in addition to, not instead of, the enormous amounts of energy already being consumed.
Stewart Muir:I point this out not to excuse humanity's mega appetite for coal. We can all agree it's bad. I wish I could be the one to announce that we're at the dawn of a new age of net zero energy positivity. I'm as excited as anyone about rising solar energy, the science of carbon capture, how waste energy can solve the climate crisis, but we still need to talk about the elephant, or the 247,000 elephants in the room, and that's coal. There's so much excitement about renewable energy, articles, organizations, movements it feels like renewable energy sources are winning. The urgency can feel overwhelming, I feel it. It's a sense of helplessness, because talking about imaginary progress in reducing coal demand doesn't enhance the energy transition. It just makes it more difficult. It's also important to remember that certain uses of coal are going to be way harder to change than creating electricity. I'm thinking especially of making steel, which relies on both the chemistry and the heat of coal, and we do need steel.
Stewart Muir:We're all in this together, trying to understand these complex issues. We're lifting nations out of poverty, modernizing countries, giving millions of people opportunities to give themselves better lives, and right now these positive developments are coming at the cost of rising carbon due to coal. When countries move from developing to developed, it's a good thing. We don't want that to stop, but we need to look more at how progress is happening. It's time the world paid more attention to coal. We need to confront this dichotomy if we are to make any real progress at such a moment. If the wealthy countries of the world have anything to offer, it is how to make energy systems cleaner.
Stewart Muir:According to the US Energy Information Administration, in America's electric power sector, between 2005 and 2019, there was an over 800 million metric ton decline in CO2 emissions. One-third came from renewable generation, but two-thirds of the decline came from the shift from coal to natural gas. And if alternative fuels like natural gas have driven emissions reductions in the United States, maybe that is something to consider for Asian countries. Clearly, without addressing coal's persistent use, the energy transition will fail. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. Leave a review, drop a note in the comments. Let's keep this conversation going. I'm Stuart Muir, and this is Power Struggle.
